Lovenduski

A new model can predict marine heatwaves and extreme ocean acidity months in advance

David J Lubinski — Thu, 21 Nov 2024 19:32:44 +0000

A new model can predict marine heatwaves and extreme ocean acidity months in advance David J Lubinski Thu, 11/21/2024 - 12:32

Gabe Allen

In the 21st century, the Earth’s oceans are growing warmer and more acidic. This change is happening slowly over the long-term, but it can also cause short-term, local spikes.

These events are like the heatwaves and or bad air quality days we experience here on land, they just happen underwater. And, if they are bad enough, they can devastate marine ecosystems.

INSTAAR PhD student Samuel Mogen, INSTAAR director Nicole Lovenduski and collaborators take aim at these ocean extremes in a new paper in Nature Geoscience. The researchers outline a method for forecasting both marine heatwaves and acute ocean acidity. The new model is adept at forecasting these events up to year in advance, with varying degrees of certainty based on the location.

Though Mogen and his collaborators are not the first to develop a predictive model for marine heat waves, they are the first to forecast ocean acidification. In the past, this research has been stymied by a lack of data — acidity is much harder to measure than temperature. While satellites can accurately measure sea surface temperature from above, acidity levels can only be measured by collecting physical water samples.

Samuel Mogen works on water samples from a CTD-Rosette during the US Go-Ship cruise A16N (leg 1) in March, 2023 in the equatorial Atlantic. The cruise is part of a decadal survey of the oceans to better understand long-term changes to global ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry (including acidification).

However, in recent years, scientists have been hard at work entering measurements from research cruises into large earth system models like the one Mogen used. Much of this research has been contributed by Mogen’s collaborators at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in ��«��Ƶ.

“We’re getting to the point where we can use them to try and understand the evolution of carbon in the ocean in the short-term future,” Mogen said.

Carbon is key for understanding ocean acidity, especially in the 21st century. As global emissions increase, more and more carbon dioxide leaches into seawater from the atmosphere, making it more acidic. Mogen’s model predicts, for the first time, how large-scale climate patterns might impact this effect.

In one example, the researchers found that the recurring warming event in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean called an El Niño seems to lead to widespread ocean acidity. This effect is especially pronounced in the eastern pacific, off the coast of the Americas.

Mogen and his collaborators used a mineral called aragonite as a proxy for ocean acidification. As acidity goes up, aragonite concentrations go down. And, this change has a direct effect on marine organisms. Mollusks, like clams and snails, and corals rely on aragonite to form shells and exoskeletons. Without it, they are left unprotected.

“It can impact how you grow a shell, how quickly your shell dissolves and just your overall survival,” Mogen explained.

This is just one of the myriad ways that ocean acidity affects marine life. Many are still being discovered.

As acute ocean acidification events worsen, Mogen hopes that his research will pave the way to better forecasting and more sustainable management of marine ecosystems.

“If you can predict these events in advance, you might be able to inform a manager of a regional fishery and they can alter their practices,” Mogen explained. “Maybe you change how you’re harvesting fish to allow the ecosystem to make it through an extreme event.”

Mogen’s paper is fresh off the (virtual) presses, but the researchers actually put the finishing touches on their model a year ago. Back in November of 2023, they produced a forecast for the upcoming year that foretold widespread marine heatwaves and ocean acidity.

Mogen says that, at first glance, the heat wave predictions seem to have played out. But, it will take a while longer to crunch incoming data on acidity. As new information flows in, the researchers will dive back in and further validate the model. In the end, they hope to give decision makers the best possible tools to predict ocean extremes and mitigate their impacts.

Fig. 1 from the Mogen et al. paper: Forecast skill for MHW, OAX (Ωa), and OAX ([H+]). 1st column is skill for marine heatwaves MHW, 2nd is for ocean acidification extremes as degree of saturation of seawater with respect to the mineral aragonite OAX (Ωa), and 3rd is for ocean acidification extremes as hydrogen ion concentration OAX ([H+]. Top row is 1.5 months lead time. Lower rows are 2.5, 6.5, and 10.5 months lead time. Credit: Nature Geoscience (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01593-0

If you have questions about this story, or would like to reach out to INSTAAR for further comment, you can contact Senior Communications Specialist Gabe Allen at gabriel.allen@colorado.edu.

New research from INSTAAR PhD student Samuel Mogen, INSTAAR director Nicole Lovenduski, and collaborators could help protect marine life as climate change worsens. Their model is the first-ever forecasting tool for ocean acidification.

Off

Traditional

White

NASA Earth Observatory image for August 2019 by Joshua Stevens, using sea surface temperature data from Coral Reef Watch.

From interim to permanent: Lovenduski named INSTAAR director (RIO)

Anonymous — Tue, 28 May 2024 18:01:23 +0000

From interim to permanent: Lovenduski named INSTAAR director (RIO) Anonymous (not verified) Tue, 05/28/2024 - 12:01

The ��«��Ƶ has named Associate Professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (ATOC) Nikki Lovenduski director of the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR), effective July 1.

Off

Traditional

White

Colorado Matters: Feb. 7, 2024: Climate change and ocean acidity (CPR)

Anonymous — Tue, 13 Feb 2024 21:00:07 +0000

Colorado Matters: Feb. 7, 2024: Climate change and ocean acidity (CPR) Anonymous (not verified) Tue, 02/13/2024 - 14:00

Ryan Warner

Research by Cara Nissen and Nikki Lovenduski, on how climate change is changing the acidity of the Antarctic Ocean, is part of the Colorado Matters podcast.

Off

Traditional

White

The Antarctic Ocean plays a critical role in regulating the world’s climate. Warming temps are throwing it off balance (CPR News)

Anonymous — Fri, 09 Feb 2024 22:14:48 +0000

The Antarctic Ocean plays a critical role in regulating the world’s climate. Warming temps are throwing it off balance (CPR News) Anonymous (not verified) Fri, 02/09/2024 - 15:14

Molly Cruse

The acidity of the Antarctic, or Southern, Ocean could double by the end of the century, finds a study led by INSTAAR Cara Nissen. This could have detrimental effects on the icy ecosystem’s smallest inhabitants, like plankton and krill, that are the base of the food web in the ocean.

Off

Traditional

White

Acidic waters around Antarctica could spell doom for marine life (9News)

Anonymous — Fri, 02 Feb 2024 17:33:35 +0000

Acidic waters around Antarctica could spell doom for marine life (9News) Anonymous (not verified) Fri, 02/02/2024 - 10:33

9News

Nikki Lovenduski is featured in this two-minute video, discussing how the Antarctic Ocean could become too acidic for many animals to survive by the end of the century without drastic measures to curb emissions from fossil fuels. She references a recent publication led by Cara Nissen and including herself and Cassandra Brooks as well as three colleagues from the Alfred Wegener Institute.

Off

Traditional

White

Acidity of Antarctic waters could double by century’s end, threatening biodiversity (CU ��«��Ƶ Today)

Anonymous — Wed, 10 Jan 2024 23:08:33 +0000

Acidity of Antarctic waters could double by century’s end, threatening biodiversity (CU ��«��Ƶ Today) Anonymous (not verified) Wed, 01/10/2024 - 16:08

Yvaine Ye , CU ��«��Ƶ

The acidity of Antarctica’s coastal waters could double by the end of the century, threatening plankton and all marine life that inhabits the Southern Ocean, according to a new study published in Nature Communications. Cara Nissen is first author of the study. Coauthors include additional INSTAARs Nikki Lovenduski and Cassandra Brooks as well as three colleagues from the Alfred Wegener Institute.

Off

Traditional

White

Lovenduski named interim director of INSTAAR (RIO)

Anonymous — Fri, 01 Sep 2023 19:12:14 +0000

Lovenduski named interim director of INSTAAR (RIO) Anonymous (not verified) Fri, 09/01/2023 - 13:12

CU ��«��Ƶ has named Associate Professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Nikki Lovenduski interim director of Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR) effective August 28.

Off

Traditional

White

Large or small, nuclear war would wreak havoc on the ocean (Colorado Arts and Sciences Magazine)

Anonymous — Wed, 31 May 2023 06:00:00 +0000

Large or small, nuclear war would wreak havoc on the ocean (Colorado Arts and Sciences Magazine) Anonymous (not verified) Wed, 05/31/2023 - 00:00

Nikki Lovenduski was part of a collaborative study that found that nuclear war would wreak havoc on the world’s oceans, causing them to cool rapidly and become choked with sea ice. Ocean marine life would die out, and marine ecosystems would take decades—possibly even longer—to recover.

Off

Traditional

White

Ocean surface tipping point could accelerate climate change (EurekAlert)

Anonymous — Tue, 07 Mar 2023 22:08:59 +0000

Ocean surface tipping point could accelerate climate change (EurekAlert) Anonymous (not verified) Tue, 03/07/2023 - 15:08

The oceans help to limit global warming by soaking up carbon dioxide emissions. But scientists have discovered that intense warming in the future could lessen that ability, leading to even more severe warming. The discovery comes from a study led by The University of Texas at Austin and including INSTAAR Nikki Lovenduski.

Off

Traditional

White

Lovenduski, Rahman, and Suding garner seed grants from CU Research & Innovation Office

Anonymous — Mon, 18 Apr 2022 06:00:00 +0000

Lovenduski, Rahman, and Suding garner seed grants from CU Research & Innovation Office Anonymous (not verified) Mon, 04/18/2022 - 00:00

Shelly Sommer

Three INSTAAR researchers are among the recipients of Research & Innovation Seed Grants for 2022. Nicole Lovenduski, Shaily Rahman, and Katharine Suding will each receive funding to pursue an innovative new project with the potential to grow into future opportunities.

The CU ��«��Ƶ Research & Innovation Office (RIO) and the Office of the Provost announced the 25 total awards last week. The Research & Innovation Seed Grants are specifically aimed to stimulate inter- and multidisciplinary work on research, scholarship and creative activity projects that either explore new areas of research with high impact and future funding potential, or pursue research, scholarship, or creative activity of high impact to arts and humanities disciplines.

Seed grants support projects that take investigators in creative, and sometimes high-risk, high-reward directions.

Nicole Lovenduski (INSTAAR/ATOC) will look for algae in the oceans by programming an imaginary satellite into an Earth System model.

Phytoplankton—algae that float in the upper layers of the ocean—not only form the base of the marine food web, but are important in Earth’s climate. Because they absorb and redistribute carbon, “They matter for the carbon cycle,” says Lovenduski.

Better estimates of how much algae is out there can help fine-tune our knowledge of climate. Techniques developed in the 1980s and 90s allow us to “see” algae in the oceans by using satellites to look at reflected light. But clouds obscure the view. And places that are the most persistently cloudy—high latitudes and right along the equator—often have the most phytoplankton.

Scientists are developing interpolation schemes, which are methods to estimating amounts of phytoplankton in a cloudy area by looking at the amounts in cloudless areas close by. The question Lovenduski’s research will help answer is which interpolation schemes work best.

For this project, Lovenduski’s team will program a pretend satellite, called an emulator, into an Earth system model. Using the emulator, they can test ideas and see which interpolation schemes work well, and which give less likely answers.

Lovenduski says, “It lays a foundation that we can build on to ask interesting questions important for the global climate system.”

Shaily Rahman (INSTAAR/GEOL) will develop geochemical techniques to help prove the existence of water on Mars.

Rahman will join a NASA-funded team laying groundwork for investigating the topic of water on Mars. Wave and delta features on the surface of Mars suggest the presence of water. The Mars Perseverance rover is gathering rock samples back to Earth, in the hope that they can help unravel the ancient history of Mars and ultimately water in the solar system.

Rahman is adding an innovative new geochemical component to the study, using isotopes of silicon to identify and interpret evidence of water-rock interactions in a stream environment.

“How do you study geochemical processes that happen on another planet?” asks Rahman. “Well, you look for terrestrial analogues on Earth that you think are similar to the environment you’d find on this other planet.” It turns out that Iceland has certain similarities to Martian geology. The state-of-the-art isotopic tracers Rahman will bring to bear can put some limits on what to expect about the degree and rate of weathering and mineral formation where water is present.

Results of the study may help guide what samples Perserverance collects. They will also feed into a proposal to acquire a sophisticated instrument to analyze these geochemical properties of rocks for the CU ��«��Ƶ campus and Rahman’s long-term research plans.

Katharine Suding (INSTAAR/EBIO) will investigate the optimal mix of factors to boost ecosystem services of apple orchards in semi-arid regions like Colorado.

Rapid declines in biodiversity and soil health around the world suggest the need to manage agricultural ecosystems differently. Recent scientific advances show that adding diversity to agricultural systems can increase the natural benefits of ecosystems, called ecosystem services. Ecosystem services can include better crop yields, pest suppression, soil health, pollination, drought tolerance, and other benefits to the land, plants, animals, and people.

The trick is what kinds of diversity to add. There are many unknown factors in how to bring in diversity in a way that optimizes ecosystem services. Suding will take on this challenge by developing a data-driven planting plan for Colorado apple orchards.

Her team will focus on dialing in what combination of different types of apple trees and different species of plants grown underneath the tree canopy can best leverage key ecosystem services, like soil health, pollination, and reduction of chemical inputs and canopy loss. They will use the linkages they discover to design research orchards in ��«��Ƶ County, a first step in building a network of research orchards throughout Colorado that can address these questions in the long term.

Algae in the ocean, water on Mars, and supercharged apple orchards are research topics for three INSTAAR scientists awarded RIO seed grants. The grants are designed to foster new areas of research with high impact and future funding potential.

Off

Traditional

White

Lovenduski

A new model can predict marine heatwaves and extreme ocean acidity months in advance

Off

From interim to permanent: Lovenduski named INSTAAR director (RIO)

Off

Colorado Matters: Feb. 7, 2024: Climate change and ocean acidity (CPR)

Off

The Antarctic Ocean plays a critical role in regulating the world’s climate. Warming temps are throwing it off balance (CPR News)

Off

Acidic waters around Antarctica could spell doom for marine life (9News)

Off

Acidity of Antarctic waters could double by century’s end, threatening biodiversity (CU ��«����Ƶ Today)

Off

Lovenduski named interim director of INSTAAR (RIO)

Off

Large or small, nuclear war would wreak havoc on the ocean (Colorado Arts and Sciences Magazine)

Off

Ocean surface tipping point could accelerate climate change (EurekAlert)

Off

Lovenduski, Rahman, and Suding garner seed grants from CU Research & Innovation Office

Nicole Lovenduski (INSTAAR/ATOC) will look for algae in the oceans by programming an imaginary satellite into an Earth System model.

Shaily Rahman (INSTAAR/GEOL) will develop geochemical techniques to help prove the existence of water on Mars.

Katharine Suding (INSTAAR/EBIO) will investigate the optimal mix of factors to boost ecosystem services of apple orchards in semi-arid regions like Colorado.

Off

Acidity of Antarctic waters could double by century’s end, threatening biodiversity (CU ��«��Ƶ Today)