Research

New research demystifies carbon cycling in freshwater lakes around the world

David J Lubinski — Wed, 08 Jan 2025 17:18:03 +0000

New research demystifies carbon cycling in freshwater lakes around the world David J Lubinski Wed, 01/08/2025 - 10:18

Gabe Allen

A refined mathematical model is now capable of predicting carbon inputs and outputs for freshwater lakes around the world, according to new research from INSTAAR’s Isabella Oleksy and collaborators. Their work could help scientists understand the role of freshwater lakes in the global carbon cycle.

Oleksy's most recent paper, which was published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, tests and revises an equation that allows scientists to estimate the overall biological activity in a lake from limited data.

The equation was created by a group of scientists, including Oleksy's co-author Christopher Solomon, in 2018. It’s a mathematical formulation of the Nutrient Color Paradigm — a longstanding theory in the field. Basically, the theory posits that you can estimate the total growth of phytoplankton in a lake from the color of the water and measurements of a few key nutrients. Phytoplankton is the basis of the marine food web, which makes it a good stand-in for lake productivity on the whole.

Further refinements of a model like this might be used to generate estimates of how much carbon is being fixed by lakes annually
-- Isabella Oleksy

Isabella Oleksy prepares to take measurements from The Loch, a high altitude lake in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado.

“This is a way to potentially be able to understand what algal biomass and water quality might look like in a bunch of different lakes, even when you can’t necessarily get out there and measure it,” Solomon said.

Oleksy's study is the first to test the model against real world data — quite a bit of it. Back in 2019, when Oleksy was a postdoctoral researcher at the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, she put out a call for data at a meeting of the Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network.

“I asked people, ‘Hey. I want to test this model, but we need observations from lakes around the world,’” she said.

Collaborators were eager to help out. With the help of 30 scientists at many different institutions, Oleksy gathered detailed measurements from 58 different freshwater lakes around the world. Then, she tested the model’s predictions against the data. The initial test was encouraging.

“The results were pretty realistic,” she said.

The next step was to make the predictions even better. Through a process called Monte Carlo analysis, Oleksy pitted the model’s predictions against the on-the-ground data. Where the model faltered, she added new parameters to improve it.

In the end, Oleksy and her collaborators created a model capable of estimating the conditions of freshwater lakes in a diverse range of locations and ecosystems.

According to Oleksy, the new model could have implications far beyond freshwater lakes. It elucidates one small element of the global carbon cycle — a cycle that has become a priority for scientists in the era of global warming.

Policy makers and researchers rely on global-scale models of the carbon sources and sinks to predict the Earth’s future climate and inform large-scale solutions for climate change. These models are vast and complex — they must take into account the inputs and outputs of diverse human activities, ecosystems and geologic phenomena. Oleksy and her collaborators hope that their new study can be used to eliminate some uncertainty from these estimates.

“There is a lot of uncertainty about the role of inland waters,” Oleksy said. “Further refinements of a model like this might be used to generate estimates of how much carbon is being fixed by lakes annually.”

Global distribution of the 58 lakes included in Oleksy et al. 2024 (Figure 2, JGR Biogeosciences). The “calibration” lakes are shaded in yellow and all others (“validation”) are in blue.

If you have questions about this story, or would like to reach out to INSTAAR for further comment, you can contact Senior Communications Specialist Gabe Allen at gabriel.allen@colorado.edu.

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Increased wildfire activity may be a feature of past periods of abrupt climate change, study finds (OSU)

David J Lubinski — Wed, 08 Jan 2025 00:03:46 +0000

Increased wildfire activity may be a feature of past periods of abrupt climate change, study finds (OSU) David J Lubinski Tue, 01/07/2025 - 17:03

A new study investigating ancient methane trapped in Antarctic ice suggests that global increases in wildfire activity likely occurred during periods of abrupt climate change throughout the last Ice Age. Led by Ben Riddell-Young (OSU/CIRES/NOAA), the research team includes Reid Clark from INSTAAR's Stable Isotope Lab.

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First-of-its-kind study provides a detailed look at water quality along the Colorado River’s upper basin

David J Lubinski — Mon, 16 Dec 2024 23:47:26 +0000

First-of-its-kind study provides a detailed look at water quality along the Colorado River’s upper basin David J Lubinski Mon, 12/16/2024 - 16:47

Gabe Allen

Michael Gooseff and collaborators are gathering the first-ever continuous, long-term water quality sample of the Colorado River's upper basin. INSTAAR senior communication specialist Gabe Allen joined them for three days on the river.

One vessel in particular stood out from the rafts of vacationers and fisherman that floated lazily through Ruby Canyon on a sunny fall day last month. The occupants had swapped the usual fish and tackle for binders, laptops and an assortment of pumps and devices all buckled together with ratchet straps.

Aboard the raft, U.S. Geological Survey groundwater hydrologist Connor Newman bottled river water samples and jotted down notes in a waterproof notebook. Behind him, INSTAAR faculty fellow Michael Gooseff manned the oars and kept a watchful eye on a collection of sensors strung on a pole that extended into the water from the back of the boat.

This is the tenth time Gooseff and his collaborators have rafted this stretch of river since 2018. The goal is to gather the first-ever continuous, long-term water quality sample of the Colorado River's upper basin. In 2023, the USGS awarded Gooseff’s team with funding for biannual surveys through 2026.

Newman pumps river water into sample containers while Gooseff mans the oars.

A new approach

While water quality data is usually limited to discrete monitoring stations posted every few miles along the river bank, Gooseff’s boat-mounted sensors capture data every 40-60 feet. He calls this sampling method “Lagrangian sampling” after the 18th-century mathematician Joseph-Louis Legrange.

“His idea was that you could take the perspective of a moving particle in the world and try to understand how it changed based on its surroundings — as opposed to sitting somewhere and watching the world change around you.” Gooseff explained.

Gooseff’s raft, or “floating sampling platform” as he likes to call it, is equipped to measure pH, temperature, conductivity, turbidity, dissolved oxygen and nitrate. Collectively, these measurements offer a detailed map of the character and contents of Colorado River water as it travels from Rocky Mountain National Park to the canyonlands.

“What we’re trying to do is to figure out, ‘where do we see systematic changes along the river,’” Gooseff explained. “And now we have a higher spatial resolution.”

A map of the Colorado River and a waterproof notebook for logging data lay on a cooler atop the "floating sampling platform." The team collected physical samples of river water every three miles for later analysis.

Pinpointing water quality

The project has already reaped insights. In 2019, Gooseff and his colleagues published a paper detailing early findings. The researchers were able to pinpoint sources of salts, nitrogen, turbidity and temperature fluctuation over time and space.

One particular finding offered important insight to river users. Somewhere around Grand Junction, Colorado, nitrate concentrations in the Colorado River increase. A signal like this is usually the result of agricultural runoff, but water managers weren’t sure exactly where the nitrate was coming from. Was it from the confluence with the Gunnison River, which hosts large farms upstream? Was it from local farms in the Grand Valley?

Gooseff’s data showed that nitrate levels spiked when the Gunnison entered the Colorado and then continued to climb as the river moved through the Grand Valley. The study elucidated, for the first time, how much nitrate was contributed by each source.

Gooseff hopes that findings like these can help water and land managers better solve issues as they arise. The upper basin is especially important because changes in water quality here can compound as the water travels to lower-basin states like California. Nitrate, which can lead to harmful algal blooms in high enough concentrations, is just one example.

“There’s a lot of the Colorado River watershed that has the opportunity to modify water quality before it gets to the end of the basin,” he said.

Newman sits next to the Gasometrix miniREUDI and speculates on potential uses for the device. On this trip, he used the miniREUDI to sense fluctuations in helium. He hopes the data will give the scientists a more precise idea of where groundwater enters the Colorado River.

Understanding groundwater

This year, the floating sampling platform featured a new gadget. Newman brought along a portable mass spectrometer called a miniREUDI that is capable of detecting precise concentrations of noble gases, like helium or argon, in the water.

The miniREUDI was more expensive than everything else in the boat combined, and is one of only two in the U.S., but it was worth it. By tracking helium along the Colorado, Newman can infer where salty groundwater is entering the river.

“The noble gases are an indicator of where there’s old groundwater discharge,” Newman explained. “We essentially look for the helium to show us where there might be influence of salts because the salinity of the Colorado River is one of the primary management concerns for downstream users.”

If the Colorado becomes too salty, it could prevent lower-basin users in California and Mexico from using the water for agriculture, industry or drinking water. Newman’s data will give water managers more information that they can use to map and prevent excess salinity.

Newman, Gooseff and other collaborators outlined their methodology and rationale for using miniREUDI in the boat in a paper in the Journal of Hydrology this summer. They hope to publish more results soon.

Click to zoom

Packing up

As Gooseff’s raft passed through the Black Rocks, a popular swimming, fishing and cliff-jumping spot in Horsethief Canyon, a fisherman waved from a nearby boat.

“You all are with the USGS?” he asked. “I use your data all the time.”

Because Gooseff’s research is funded by the USGS, any papers or datasets that come from it will be freely available to the public. The insights will be invaluable for land and river managers like the Bureau of Land Management. With any luck, they could help especially science-literate fishermen find a new honey hole as well.

By now, the floating sampling platform, oars and camping gear are packed away for the winter. But, it won’t be long before Gooseff heads back up to the Pumphouse Boat Launch to run the river during the high-flow spring season. As much as he relishes long days in the field and nights spent under the moonlight, the quiet months are just as interesting.

“The real reward is stepping back after our samples are analyzed and our data comes together and asking ‘what have we learned,’” he said.

Newman and Gooseff drift into camp at the end of a long day of data collection.

If you have questions about this story, or would like to reach out to INSTAAR for further comment, you can contact Senior Communications Specialist Gabe Allen at gabriel.allen@colorado.edu.

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INSTAAR faculty fellow Mike Gooseff rows while USGS hydrologist Connor Newman logs a sample of Colorado River water outside Grand Junction, Colo. in October, 2024. All photos by Gabe Allen.

What 92 years of data say about ice cover (EOS)

David J Lubinski — Mon, 16 Dec 2024 18:06:48 +0000

What 92 years of data say about ice cover (EOS) David J Lubinski Mon, 12/16/2024 - 11:06

Using a 92-year record of ice freezing and thawing from Mohonk Lake in New York, Isabella Oleksy and her co-author David Richardson (SUNY New Paltz) uncover new insights into the relationship between changing ice cover and lake dynamics, with implications for bodies of water worldwide.

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An ice-free day on the Arctic Ocean? It’s coming sooner than we realized, a CU researcher says (KUNC)

David J Lubinski — Tue, 10 Dec 2024 23:02:54 +0000

An ice-free day on the Arctic Ocean? It’s coming sooner than we realized, a CU researcher says (KUNC) David J Lubinski Tue, 12/10/2024 - 16:02

Alexandra Jahn speaks with KUNC's Erin O'Toole about her recent research to predict when the first ice-free day on the Arctic Ocean might occur. Jahn and her collaborator found that day could happen within the next 20 years – and possibly in as few as three years. An ice-free Arctic could significantly impact the ecosystem and Earth’s climate.

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INSTAAR at AGU 2024

David J Lubinski — Thu, 05 Dec 2024 19:01:36 +0000

INSTAAR at AGU 2024 David J Lubinski Thu, 12/05/2024 - 12:01

Gabe Allen , David Lubinski

Each year, more than 25,000 earth and space scientists from around the world convene for the annual convention of the American Geophysical Union. This year’s conference runs for a week on 9-13 December in Washington, D.C., and will feature talks and posters from INSTAAR’s faculty fellows, faculty research associates, postdocs and students. Our Institute’s contributions will span the globe, touching on Earth systems in the oceans, alpine and polar regions.

Research highlights, from Monday to Friday

Click any image to zoom

A sea-ice free arctic

“The first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean could occur before 2030” — it’s a stark title for faculty fellow Alexandra Jahn’s latest paper, which was published in Nature on December 3rd. Jahn will give an invited talk about her research during a Monday session. In it, she will detail her work to model the climatic conditions that could lead to an ice-free arctic in the near future. Her collaborator on this project was the Swedish earth scientist Céline Heuzé. Read more about this project in CU ��«��Ƶ Today. [ Monday a.m. talk ]

Woody encroachment into alpine tundra

Although woody encroachment has been well-studied in the arctic, less is known about its effects in alpine tundra. Katya Jay (INSTAAR affiliate and alum, now at NEON and CU ��«��Ƶ ESIL) and her co-authors have combined multiple imagery datasets with many other measurement types to try to understand how encroachment happens over time. The team included Katharine Suding, Will Wieder, and two CU ��«��Ƶ colleagues. Jay will present their findings in a poster session on Tuesday. For more about her recent research, watch her talk at CU ��«��Ƶ's Earth Lab this spring. [ Tuesday a.m. poster ]

Alpine lake biomarkers in Wyoming

Lipid biomarkers preserved in lake sediment provide valuable information about past climate and environmental changes. One such class of biomarkers, brGDGTs, has proven its value as a paleothermometer and has promise for reconstructing other key environmental variables as well. INSTAAR research scientist Jonathan Raberg (also with University of Wyoming) will present his collaborative work to compare sediment brGDGTs with other environmental proxies in Wyoming alpine lakes. [ Tuesday a.m. talk ]

Warming and sediment on the Canning River

Faculty fellow Irina Overeem - with a team of mostly INSTAAR researchers, alums, and affiliates - spent the past two field seasons documenting changes on the Canning River in Alaska. She will speak about their research on Tuesday. The project investigates the transport of sediment and nutrients from the Alaskan permafrost out to the Arctic Ocean. Overeem and PhD student Josie Arcuri are also the stars of a new film about the project titled “Icy River” by ��«��Ƶ-based documentarian Ryan Vachon. INSTAAR will host a screening and a Q&A on January 30th. [ Tuesday a.m. talk ]

Carbon cycling in cold regions

Arctic rivers move, process and store an immense amount of organic carbon — carbon that has built up in the surrounding permafrost over millennia. Faculty fellow Suzanne Anderson will present a poster on Tuesday detailing her work to elucidate the carbon cycles, sources and sinks of these icy waterways. Her research sheds light on these poorly-understood systems during a time when climate change is impacting them on every level. Her collaborators include Irina Overeem, Robert Anderson, Marisa Repasch and Josie Arcuri. [ Tuesday p.m. poster ]

Snowmelt and subalpine forests

As the climate warms, subalpine forests experience longer growing seasons and more variable winter snow. In an invited talk on Thursday, faculty fellow Noah Molotch will detail his investigation into these important ecosystems over the past quarter-century. His work draws on decades of remote sensing data that shows the importance of snowmelt on ecosystem productivity. His collaborators include Eric Kennedy, John Knowles, Sean Burns and Peter Blanken. [ Thursday a.m. talk ]

Marine heatwaves and ocean acidity extremes

PhD student Samuel Mogen, Nikki Lovenduski and collaborators take aim at predicting marine heatwaves and ocean acidity extremes in a new paper in Nature Geoscience. Their new model is adept at forecasting these acute events from months to a year in advance, with varying degrees of certainty based on the event type and location. Mogen will present the team's poster on Thursday in a session on climate variability and predictability. Read more about the forecasts in a recent INSTAAR news story. [ Thursday p.m. poster ]

Flooding in the 21st Century

Faculty fellow Albert Kettner will give an invited tallk on Thursday during AGU’s “Changing Climate: Associated Natural Hazards and Impacts” session. He will focus on his recent work to simulate flooding on a global scale at the end of the 21st century. His research documents changes in the magnitude and frequency of flooding under a specific climate scenario, in which emissions are reduced slowly. His collaborators include Sagy Cohen, Irina Overeem, Balazs Fekete, Robert Brakenridge and Jaia Syvitski. Read more about Kettner’s work in a recent INSTAAR news story. [ Thursday p.m. talk ]

Microbes and methane growth 2020-2022

A new analysis from Sylvia Michel, Pieter Tans, Reid Clark, Jianghanyang (Ben) Li, and collaborators investigates the root cause of a recent atmospheric methane spike. Their finding suggests microbes have been emitting more methane than fossil fuels in recent years. Nonetheless, reducing fossil fuel consumption remains key to addressing climate change. Their work was recently published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Michel will give an invited talk on Friday in a session on Isotopes of the Atmospheric Components. Read more about this study in CU ��«��Ƶ Today [ Friday a.m. talk ]

Mountain hydrology and biogeochemistry

Presentations on 'Mountain hydrology and biogeochemistry in a changing world' are being held in honor of Mark “SnoBear” Williams (INSTAAR Fellow Emeritus and Geography Professor Emeritus), who passed away in 2023. Presenters are invited to build on Mark's diverse contributions and address the question: What’s next for mountain hydrology? A total of 25 presentations will be made. Noah Molotch is the primary convener, assisted by Diane McKnight and Jennifer Morse, plus INSTAAR alums Paul Brooks (University of Utah) and Alia Khan (Western Washington University). [ Friday a.m. posters ] [ Friday p.m. talks ]

Special events

Click any image to zoom

Monday 4:00 - 5:00 p.m. Exhibit Hall booth #328

Meet the editors of INSTAAR's journal AAAR

INSTAAR's peer-reviewed, open-access journal Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research will be represented in booth #328 in the Exhibit Hall during the meeting. Stop by on Monday late afternoon to meet with our journal editors Anne Jennings and Diane McKnight as well as the staff at Taylor & Francis who publish and host the journal. AAAR primarily covers environmental science from modern to paleo timescales, with an emphasis on climate change in mountain and high latitude regions.

Monday 5:30 - 7:00 p.m. Dacha Beer Garden

Attend the INSTAAR happy hour

Our NewSTAAR committee is hosting an informal INSTAAR happy hour on Monday evening. All INSTAARs are invited, both current folks and alumni. Grad students and postdocs are especially encouraged to attend. The event will be held at the Dacha Beer Garden (Shaw, 1600 7th St NW #7), which has a variety of drink/food options and is within walking distance to the convention center. Committee members will be there until about 7:00 p.m., so drop by when you can.

Wednesday 6:00 - 8:00 p.m. Hall E

Celebrate INSTAAR's latest AGU Fellow

Michael Gooseff is among 54 scholars in the 2024 cohort of AGU Fellows. All have made exceptional contributions to their fields and will be celebrated at the Honors Ceremony on Wednesday evening in Hall E of the Convention Center (subsequent banquet requires a ticket and is in a different location). The honor is bestowed annually on less than one tenth of one percent of AGU members. Gooseff was selected for his exemplary leadership and for advancing our understanding of how a changing climate affects ecosystems and freshwater supply. Read more about Mike and his recognition in an INSTAAR news story.

Additional presentations

More than 85 INSTAARs are participating in AGU 2024. Click an author name below to see their abstracts on the AGU website. For questions, email David Lubinski.

INSTAAR authors

[#] = Number of abstracts per author

Lane Allen [1] B
Bob Anderson [10] C, EP
Suzanne Anderson [6] C, EP
John Andrews [1] PP
Natalie Aranda [1] H
Josie Arcuri [3] EP
Holly Barnard [17] B, EP, H, NS
Laurel Bayless [2] C, PP
Dylan Blaskey (alum) [5] GC, H, SY, TH
G Robert Brakenridge [1]
Cassandra Brooks [2] B, SY
Brooke Chase [1] C
Reid Clark [1] A
Cole Cochran [2] EP
Jared Collins [1] H
Carisa DeSantos [1] OS
Abby Eckland [3] EP
Alan Fried [2] A, SY
Tina Geller [2] C, OS
Michael Gooseff [7] GC, H, SY
Jason Hanania [1] H
David Harning (alum) [2] PP
Annika Horlings [1] C
Nicole Hornslein [1] H
Eric Hutton [1] EP
Alexandra Jahn [4] GC, PP
Karla Jarecke [4] H, NS
Katya Jay [2] GC, SY
Anne Jennings [8] C, GP, PP
Tyler Jones [2] B, C
Adeline Kelly [1] H
Eric Kennedy [1] U
Albert Kettner + more [5] ED, EP, NH
Theo Kuhn [1] H
Rose Leeger [1] C
Scott Lehman [2] SY
Sebastien Lenard [3] C, H
Jianghanyang (Ben) Li [6] A
Rhys-Jasper León [2] C
Nikki Lovenduski [4] A, B,
Lauren Magliozzi [1] B
Thomas Marchitto + more [4] B, PP
Bradley Markle [10] C, ED, PP
Diane McKnight [6] B, H,
Sylvia Michel [8] A, B, SY
Giff Miller [1] PP
Samuel Mogen [4] A, OS,
Noah Molotch [9] C, GC, H, U
Julia Moriarty [4] C, OS
Valerie Morris [1] B
Jennifer Morse + more [3] H
Keith Musselman [11] A, B, C, GC, H, NS, SY
Cynthia Nevison [1] B
Isabella Oleksy [3] H
Irina Overeem [10] C, ED, EP
Ross Palomaki [7] C, H
Eric Parrish [1] H
Scott Peckham [3] H
Jennifer Pensky + more [2] H
Ethan Pierce [3] C, EP
Jonathan Raberg [2] PP
Shaily Rahman [4] EP, PP
Marisa Repasch + more (alum) [13] B, EP, H
Dirk Richter [1] SY
Karl Rittger [14] C, GC, H
Katie Rocci [5] B
Kevin Rozmiarek [2] B, C
Juliana Ruef [2] C
Maria Luisa Sánchez Montes (alum) [1] PP
Maggie Scholer [1] A
Julio Sepúlveda [3] GC, PP
Millie Spencer [1] C
Sharon Stammerjohn [5] B, OS
Katharine Suding [2] B, GC
Zephyr Sylvester [1] B
Pieter Tans [3] A, SY
Nicolas Tarasewicz [3] B, H, NS
Peyton Thomas [2] SY
Emma Tyrrell [1] C
Bruce Vaughn [1] B
James Walega [1] SY
Petter Weibring [1] SY
Will Wieder [10] B, GC, H
Anna Wright [2] H
Rahila Yilangai [2] B, NS

If you have questions about this story, or would like to reach out to INSTAAR for further comment, you can contact Senior Communications Specialist Gabe Allen at gabriel.allen@colorado.edu.

America’s largest annual earth sciences conference starts on Monday December 9th and will feature presentations from INSTAAR’s faculty fellows, faculty research associates, postdocs and students. More than 85 INSTAARs contributed to at least one abstract, with 37 of us involved in 3 or more abstracts. The most abstracts for one person is 17! It will be a busy week.

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Irina Overeem scopes out how to cross the frozen Canning River to a field site (see below highlight).

Countdown to an ice-free Arctic: New research warns of accelerated timelines (CU ��«��Ƶ Today)

David J Lubinski — Tue, 03 Dec 2024 17:58:57 +0000

Countdown to an ice-free Arctic: New research warns of accelerated timelines (CU ��«��Ƶ Today) David J Lubinski Tue, 12/03/2024 - 10:58

Alexandra Jahn and Céline Heuzé (University of Gothenburg) use computer models to show how a series of extreme weather events could lead to the Arctic’s first ice-free day within just a few years. An ice-free Arctic could significantly impact the ecosystem and Earth’s climate by changing weather patterns.

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A new model can predict marine heatwaves and extreme ocean acidity months in advance

David J Lubinski — Thu, 21 Nov 2024 19:32:44 +0000

A new model can predict marine heatwaves and extreme ocean acidity months in advance David J Lubinski Thu, 11/21/2024 - 12:32

Gabe Allen

In the 21st century, the Earth’s oceans are growing warmer and more acidic. This change is happening slowly over the long-term, but it can also cause short-term, local spikes.

These events are like the heatwaves and or bad air quality days we experience here on land, they just happen underwater. And, if they are bad enough, they can devastate marine ecosystems.

INSTAAR PhD student Samuel Mogen, INSTAAR director Nicole Lovenduski and collaborators take aim at these ocean extremes in a new paper in Nature Geoscience. The researchers outline a method for forecasting both marine heatwaves and acute ocean acidity. The new model is adept at forecasting these events up to year in advance, with varying degrees of certainty based on the location.

Though Mogen and his collaborators are not the first to develop a predictive model for marine heat waves, they are the first to forecast ocean acidification. In the past, this research has been stymied by a lack of data — acidity is much harder to measure than temperature. While satellites can accurately measure sea surface temperature from above, acidity levels can only be measured by collecting physical water samples.

Samuel Mogen works on water samples from a CTD-Rosette during the US Go-Ship cruise A16N (leg 1) in March, 2023 in the equatorial Atlantic. The cruise is part of a decadal survey of the oceans to better understand long-term changes to global ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry (including acidification).

However, in recent years, scientists have been hard at work entering measurements from research cruises into large earth system models like the one Mogen used. Much of this research has been contributed by Mogen’s collaborators at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in ��«��Ƶ.

“We’re getting to the point where we can use them to try and understand the evolution of carbon in the ocean in the short-term future,” Mogen said.

Carbon is key for understanding ocean acidity, especially in the 21st century. As global emissions increase, more and more carbon dioxide leaches into seawater from the atmosphere, making it more acidic. Mogen’s model predicts, for the first time, how large-scale climate patterns might impact this effect.

In one example, the researchers found that the recurring warming event in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean called an El Niño seems to lead to widespread ocean acidity. This effect is especially pronounced in the eastern pacific, off the coast of the Americas.

Mogen and his collaborators used a mineral called aragonite as a proxy for ocean acidification. As acidity goes up, aragonite concentrations go down. And, this change has a direct effect on marine organisms. Mollusks, like clams and snails, and corals rely on aragonite to form shells and exoskeletons. Without it, they are left unprotected.

“It can impact how you grow a shell, how quickly your shell dissolves and just your overall survival,” Mogen explained.

This is just one of the myriad ways that ocean acidity affects marine life. Many are still being discovered.

As acute ocean acidification events worsen, Mogen hopes that his research will pave the way to better forecasting and more sustainable management of marine ecosystems.

“If you can predict these events in advance, you might be able to inform a manager of a regional fishery and they can alter their practices,” Mogen explained. “Maybe you change how you’re harvesting fish to allow the ecosystem to make it through an extreme event.”

Mogen’s paper is fresh off the (virtual) presses, but the researchers actually put the finishing touches on their model a year ago. Back in November of 2023, they produced a forecast for the upcoming year that foretold widespread marine heatwaves and ocean acidity.

Mogen says that, at first glance, the heat wave predictions seem to have played out. But, it will take a while longer to crunch incoming data on acidity. As new information flows in, the researchers will dive back in and further validate the model. In the end, they hope to give decision makers the best possible tools to predict ocean extremes and mitigate their impacts.

Fig. 1 from the Mogen et al. paper: Forecast skill for MHW, OAX (Ωa), and OAX ([H+]). 1st column is skill for marine heatwaves MHW, 2nd is for ocean acidification extremes as degree of saturation of seawater with respect to the mineral aragonite OAX (Ωa), and 3rd is for ocean acidification extremes as hydrogen ion concentration OAX ([H+]. Top row is 1.5 months lead time. Lower rows are 2.5, 6.5, and 10.5 months lead time. Credit: Nature Geoscience (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01593-0

If you have questions about this story, or would like to reach out to INSTAAR for further comment, you can contact Senior Communications Specialist Gabe Allen at gabriel.allen@colorado.edu.

New research from INSTAAR PhD student Samuel Mogen, INSTAAR director Nicole Lovenduski, and collaborators could help protect marine life as climate change worsens. Their model is the first-ever forecasting tool for ocean acidification.

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NASA Earth Observatory image for August 2019 by Joshua Stevens, using sea surface temperature data from Coral Reef Watch.

In Patagonia, more snow could protect glaciers from melt — but only if we curb greenhouse gas emissions soon

David J Lubinski — Tue, 19 Nov 2024 00:02:07 +0000

In Patagonia, more snow could protect glaciers from melt — but only if we curb greenhouse gas emissions soon David J Lubinski Mon, 11/18/2024 - 17:02

Gabe Allen

In an era of dwindling glaciers, Southern Patagonia has managed to hold on to a surprising amount of its ice. But, a new study in Scientific Reports from INSTAAR postdoc Matthias Troch and his colleagues suggests that this protective effect might be pushed up against its limits soon.

Before making predictions, Troch and his collaborators looked back in time. They used an equation that, when plugged into NASA’s ice-sheet and sea-level system model, simulated glacial dynamics for the past six millenia. The results showed that precipitation, not temperature, was the main culprit of glacier fluctuation during around 4,500, of the past 6,000 years, or 76 percent of the time. In more recent years, increased snowfall protected the glaciers from rising global temperatures.

If we can limit emissions, there is hope for protecting maritime glaciers.
Matthias Troch

These simulations were hyper-focused. The researchers singled out three connected glaciers on the wetter, ocean-facing side of the Patagonia range in Southern Chile. The region came with a distinct scientific advantage. In 2005, a team aboard the American research vessel Nathaniel B. Palmer collected a sediment core from a nearby fjord. Troch and his collaborators got their hands on the sediment core and used it to validate and refine their model. In essence, they had a physical piece of evidence to provide proof that they were on the right track.

Once they had reconciled the numerical model with the sediment core, the researchers began to ask questions about the future. In particular, they were interested in what would happen to the glaciers under different emissions scenarios. If humanity stopped burning fossil fuels today, would the glaciers remain protected? What if we continued to increase our greenhouse gas emissions?

Troch and his colleagues found that increased snowfall would continue to protect the glaciers from melt if regional warming was curbed at 1.5 degrees celsius above turn-of-the-century levels. This benchmark is attainable. Yet, to limit warming to this level, humanity would need to rapidly decarbonize — temperatures are on track to climb to 2.8 degrees celsius in patagonia by the end of the century if current emissions persist.

“The study underscores the need for deep emission cuts to protect glaciers, which is vital to limit global sea-level rise,” Troch said.

The researchers also modeled what would happen if we didn’t cut back, and the outlook was not so sunny. A warmer, wetter climate could lead to rapid melt.

“This could push glaciers into a new regime dominated by rain rather than snowfall,” Troch explained.

Troch hopes that research like his will bolster the global call-to-action for green policies and practices. While news about the climate is often gloomy, there are still many harms that can be prevented if humanity strives for sustainability.

“If we can limit emissions there is hope for protecting maritime glaciers,” Troch said.

Troch also hopes that the study will catalyze further research into maritime glaciers around the world. The conclusions drawn in Southern Patagonia might be replicated in Norway, Alaska, Iceland or New Zealand. The only way to find out is further research.

If you have questions about this story, or would like to reach out to INSTAAR for further comment, you can contact Senior Communications Specialist Gabe Allen at gabriel.allen@colorado.edu.

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Microbes, not fossil fuels, drove methane growth between 2020–22 (CU ��«��Ƶ Today)

David J Lubinski — Mon, 21 Oct 2024 18:29:54 +0000

Microbes, not fossil fuels, drove methane growth between 2020–22 (CU ��«��Ƶ Today) David J Lubinski Mon, 10/21/2024 - 12:29

A new analysis from Sylvia Michel, Pieter Tans, Reid Clark, Jianghanyang (Ben) Li, and collaborators investigates the root cause of a recent atmospheric methane spike. While their finding suggests microbes have been emitting more methane than fossil fuels in recent years, reducing fossil fuel consumption remains key to addressing climate change.

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