ºù«ÍÞÊÓƵ researchers at the University of Colorado and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration anticipate an emerging El Niño event may reduce the severity of drought conditions in the Southwest United States this summer.
The announcement was made this week by researchers at the Climate Diagnostics Center, run jointly by CU-ºù«ÍÞÊÓƵ and NOAA through the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences. CIRES is headquartered on the CU-ºù«ÍÞÊÓƵ campus.
El Niño is the periodic warming of water in the tropical Pacific Ocean that temporarily influences climate throughout the world. Scientists said earlier last week that the United States could start feeling the impacts of the developing El Niño as early as mid-summer 2002. The scientists cautioned that the strength of the expected El Niño is still unknown.Ìý
"If a full-blown El Niño occurs it will be good news for the Southwest, since El Niño typically brings wetter than normal conditions for that region," said Martyn Clark, a CIRES researcher and project leader of the Western Water Assessment, or WWA.
River basins throughout the Southwest are dangerously short of water. Accumulated precipitation in the Gila River basin in Arizona, for example, is only 26 percent of normal.Ìý
The Salt River basin in Arizona is at 30 percent of normal, the Escalante River in Utah is at 46 percent, the Upper Rio Grande basin in Colorado is at 45 percent and the San Juan River headwaters in southwestern Colorado are at 46 percent of normal.
"In eight of the last 10 El Niños, the Southwest has experienced higher than normal annual runoff," Clark said. "Of course, climate prediction is an uncertain business, but I like the odds."Ìý
The same odds also suggest a drying trend in the Pacific Northwest, which has rebounded significantly from drought conditions two years ago, he said.
Until increased precipitation materializes in the Southwest, the wildfire danger in the region will continue to be high, and already low reservoirs will be hard pressed to satisfy thirsty populations, said Clark.
"The four fastest growing states in the nation -- Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, and Utah -- are all experiencing drought," said Doug Kenney, a WWA researcher based at the Natural Resources Law Center at CU-ºù«ÍÞÊÓƵ. "Many new residents have never experienced anything like this."